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Iowa and New Hampshire finishes of
non-incumbents who went on to win their
parties’ nominations, 1972–2016
Year
Candidate
Iowa
N.H.
1st
2016
H. Clinton
2nd
D
Trump
2
1
R
2012
Romney
2
1
R
2008
Obama
2
1
D
McCain
4
1
R
2004
Kerry
1
1
D
2000
Gore
1
1
D
W. Bush
1
2
R
1996
Dole
1
2
R
1992
B. Clinton
3
2
D
1988
Dukakis
3
1
D
H.W. Bush
3
1
R
1984
Mondale
1
2
D
1980
Reagan
2
1
R
1976
Carter
1
1
D
McGovern
2
1972
2
D
Sources: Archive.org, University of New Hampshire,
AP, Des Moines Register
If history is any guide, either Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) or former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg will be the Democratic Party’s choice to face President Trump. Since 1972, no candidate from either party has placed below second in both Iowa and New Hampshire and won the nomination.
[New Hampshire 2020 primary results]
While relatively few delegates have been allocated, three other candidates who have earned them so far — former vice president Joe Biden, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — will need to overcome historical precedent to win. So will Mike Bloomberg, the former New York mayor who declined to compete in Iowa and New Hampshire and is instead betting his campaign on an untested delegate strategy beginning in March.
Biden’s fourth-place finish in Iowa is no worse than John McCain’s in 2008. Yet McCain went on to win New Hampshire before taking the Republican nomination, while Biden fell to fifth place there.
Nor can Biden find much encouragement in Bill Clinton’s successful run in 1992. Though Clinton lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, his results were better than expected, enough to boost his profile and make him a contender in later contests.
Clinton’s “comeback kid” narrative seems to fit Klobuchar better than it fits the former vice president, who has underperformed expectations.
Then-Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Clinton hugs his wife, Hillary, at Clinton's election night party in Merrimack, N.H., in 1992. He finished second in that primary. During his speech, Clinton termed himself “the comeback kid.” (Ron Frehm/AP)
United States population
Black
Other
White 61%
18%
12%
Hispanic
Asian
Iowa
86%
6
3
New Hampshire
90%
4
Nevada
50%
29%
9%
8%
South Carolina
64%
6
27%
After dominating the field in Georgia, South Carolina and other early Southern states, Clinton went on to win 37 total states, the nomination and the presidency.
Biden is hoping his polling lead among black voters will deliver a similar boost in the South, where they make up a larger portion of the electorate than in heavily white Iowa and New Hampshire. Biden flew to South Carolina before the votes in New Hampshire had been counted.
“Up until now, we haven’t heard from the most committed constituency of the Democratic Party: the African American community,” he said in remarks to supporters Tuesday night.
Biden’s favorability among black voters led the field in early January, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos KnowledgePanel poll. Yet Sanders, a leading contender for the nomination, was not far behind.
Black Democrats give most-positive
ratings to Biden, Sanders and
Warren
How favorable is your opinion
of each of the following Democratic
presidential candidates?
No opinion/
Never heard of
Favorable
Unfavorable
78%
Biden
11
11
71
13
17
Sanders
58
10
32
Warren
30
17
53
Buttigieg
25
12
62
Klobuchar
33
23
44
Bloomberg
Source: Jan. 2-8, 2020, Washington Post-Ipsos
KnowledgePanel survey of 876 black Democrats
and Democratic-leaning independents
with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Black Democrats give most-positive ratings
to Biden, Sanders and Warren
How favorable is your opinion of each of the
following Democratic presidential candidates?
No opinion/
Never heard of
Favorable
Unfavorable
78%
Biden
11
11
71
13
17
Sanders
58
10
32
Warren
30
17
53
Buttigieg
25
12
62
Klobuchar
33
23
44
Bloomberg
Source: Jan. 2-8, 2020, Washington Post-Ipsos KnowledgePanel survey
of 876 black Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents
with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Black Democrats give most-positive ratings to Biden,
Sanders and Warren. Many are unfamiliar with others.
How favorable is your opinion of each of the following Democratic
presidential candidates?
No opinion/
Never heard of
Favorable
Unfavorable
78%
Biden
11%
11%
71
13
17
Sanders
58
10
32
Warren
30
17
53
Buttigieg
25
12
62
Klobuchar
33
23
44
Bloomberg
Source: Jan. 2-8, 2020, Washington Post-Ipsos KnowledgePanel survey of 876 black Democrats
and Democratic-leaning independents with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Warren, like Biden, fared worse in New Hampshire than Iowa. Unlike Sanders, her New England ties failed to help her with Granite State voters.
Only Sanders and Klobuchar can point to improvements in their positions from Iowa to New Hampshire. Still, if precedent holds, Klobuchar’s move from fifth to third hardly spells victory.
Meanwhile, Andrew Yang, after placing sixth in Iowa and eighth in New Hampshire, dropped out of the race Tuesday night. Should Biden, Warren and Klobuchar fail to gain traction in the next few weeks, they will probably follow Yang to the exits.
Early state results
and candidate
dropouts since 1992
Democrats
Only primaries without an incumbent
are shown.
2020
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
Buttigieg
Sanders
Warren
Biden
Klobuchar
Yang
Steyer
The candidate
exits the race
2016
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
H. Clinton
Sanders
O’Malley
2008
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
Obama
Edwards
Clinton
Richardson
Biden
2004
Mini
Tuesday
Mich. and
Wash.
Iowa
N.H.
Kerry
Edwards
Dean
Gephardt
Kucinich
Clark
2000
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Wash.
Gore
Bradley
1992
Iowa
N.H.
Maine
S. D.
Harkin
Tsongas
B. Clinton
Kerrey
Brown Jr.
NOTE: In 2004, after the N.H. primary,
several states held primaries on Feb. 3.
Edwards, Dean and Clark ended their
campaigns within a month after the
Mini-Tuesday.
Early state results and candidate
dropouts since 1992
Democrats
Only primaries without an incumbent are shown.
2020
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
Buttigieg
Sanders
Warren
Biden
Klobuchar
Yang
Steyer
The candidate
exits the race
2016
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
H. Clinton
Sanders
O’Malley
2008
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
Obama
Edwards
Clinton
Richardson
Biden
2004
Mini
Tuesday
Mich. and
Wash.
Iowa
N.H.
Kerry
Edwards
Dean
Gephardt
Kucinich
Clark
2000
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Wash.
Gore
Bradley
1992
Iowa
N.H.
Maine
S. D.
Harkin
Tsongas
B. Clinton
Kerrey
Brown Jr.
NOTE: In 2004, after the N.H. primary, several states
held primaries on Feb. 3. Edwards, Dean and Clark
ended their campaigns within a month after the
Mini-Tuesday.
Early state results and candidate dropouts since 1992
Democrats
Only primaries without an incumbent are shown.
2020
2016
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
H. Clinton
Buttigieg
Sanders
Sanders
Warren
O’Malley
Biden
Klobuchar
Yang
Steyer
The candidate
exits the race
2008
2004
Mini
Tuesday
Mich. and
Wash.
Iowa
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
N.H.
Obama
Kerry
Edwards
Edwards
Clinton
Dean
Richardson
Gephardt
Biden
Kucinich
Clark
2000
1992
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Wash.
Iowa
N.H.
Maine
S. D.
Gore
Harkin
Bradley
Tsongas
B. Clinton
Kerrey
Brown Jr.
NOTE: In 2004, after the N.H. primary, several states held primaries on Feb. 3. Edwards,
Dean and Clark ended their campaigns within a month after the Mini-Tuesday.
720
Early state results and candidate dropouts since 1992
Democrats
Only primaries without an incumbent are shown.
2020
2016
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
H. Clinton
Buttigieg
Sanders
Sanders
Warren
O’Malley
Biden
Klobuchar
Yang
Steyer
The candidate
exits the race
2008
2004
Mini
Tuesday
Mich. and
Wash.
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
Iowa
N.H.
Obama
Kerry
Edwards
Edwards
Clinton
Dean
Richardson
Gephardt
Biden
Kucinich
Clark
2000
1992
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Wash.
Iowa
N.H.
Maine
S. D.
Gore
Harkin
Bradley
Tsongas
B. Clinton
Kerrey
Brown Jr.
NOTE: In 2004, after the N.H. primary, several states held primaries on Feb. 3. Edwards, Dean and Clark
ended their campaigns within a month after the Mini-Tuesday.
Early state results and candidate dropouts since 1992
Democrats
Only primaries without an incumbent are shown.
2020
2016
2008
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
S.C.
H. Clinton
Obama
Buttigieg
Sanders
Sanders
Edwards
Warren
O’Malley
Clinton
Biden
Richardson
Klobuchar
Biden
Yang
Steyer
The candidate
exits the race
2004
2000
1992
Mini
Tuesday
Mich. and
Wash.
Iowa
N.H.
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Wash.
Iowa
N.H.
Maine
S. D.
Kerry
Gore
Harkin
Edwards
Tsongas
Bradley
B. Clinton
Dean
Gephardt
Kerrey
Kucinich
Brown Jr.
Clark
NOTE: In 2004, after the N.H. primary, several states held primaries on Feb. 3. Edwards, Dean and Clark ended their campaigns within a month
after the Mini-Tuesday.
Republicans
2016
Iowa
Nev.
N.H.
S.C.
Cruz
Trump
Rubio
Carson
Paul
Bush
Kasich
2012
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Fla.
Santorum
Romney
Paul
Gingrich
Perry
Bachmann
Huntsman
2008
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Paul
Giuliani
2000
Alaska
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Bush
Forbes
McCain
Keyes
Bauer
Hatch
1996
Alaska
La.
Iowa
N.H.
Buchanan
Forbes
Dole
Keyes
Gramm
Alexander
Dole, Forbes and Alexander
did not compete in La.
Source: State election data
and Smart Politics
Republicans
2016
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.
Cruz
Trump
Rubio
Carson
Paul
Bush
Kasich
2012
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Fla.
Santorum
Romney
Paul
Gingrich
Perry
Bachmann
Huntsman
2008
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Paul
Giuliani
2000
Alaska
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Bush
Forbes
McCain
Keyes
Bauer
Hatch
1996
Alaska
La.
Iowa
N.H.
Buchanan
Forbes
Dole
Keyes
Gramm
Alexander
Dole, Forbes and Alexander
did not compete in Lousiana.
Source: State election data and Smart Politics
Republicans
2016
2012
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Fla.
Cruz
Santorum
Trump
Romney
Rubio
Paul
Carson
Gingrich
Paul
Perry
Bush
Bachmann
Huntsman
Kasich
2008
2000
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.
Alaska
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Bush
Huckabee
Forbes
Romney
McCain
Thompson
McCain
Keyes
Bauer
Paul
Hatch
Giuliani
1996
Alaska
La.
Iowa
N.H.
Buchanan
Forbes
Dole, Forbes and
Alexander did not
compete in Lousiana.
Dole
Keyes
Gramm
Alexander
Source: State election data and Smart Politics
Republicans
2016
2012
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Fla.
Cruz
Santorum
Trump
Romney
Rubio
Paul
Carson
Gingrich
Paul
Perry
Bush
Bachmann
Huntsman
Kasich
2008
2000
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.
Alaska
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Bush
Huckabee
Romney
Forbes
Thompson
McCain
McCain
Keyes
Paul
Bauer
Giuliani
Hatch
McCain became the nominee after
coming in fourth in Iowa.
1996
Alaska
La.
Iowa
N.H.
Buchanan
Forbes
Dole, Forbes and
Alexander did not
compete in Lousiana.
Dole
Keyes
Gramm
Alexander
Source: State election data and Smart Politics
Republicans
2016
2012
2008
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Fla.
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.
Cruz
Santorum
Huckabee
Trump
Romney
Romney
Rubio
Paul
Thompson
Carson
Gingrich
McCain
Paul
Perry
Paul
Bush
Bachmann
Giuliani
Huntsman
Kasich
McCain became the
nominee after coming
in fourth in Iowa.
2000
1996
Alaska
Iowa
N.H.
Del.
Alaska
La.
Iowa
N.H.
Bush
Buchanan
Forbes
Forbes
Dole, Forbes and
Alexander did not
compete in Lousiana.
Dole
McCain
Keyes
Keyes
Bauer
Gramm
Hatch
Alexander
Source: State election data and Smart Politics
Since 1992, candidates who fared poorly in the two early states usually stayed in the race until additional poor showings confirmed defeat. If Sanders or Buttigieg continue apace in Nevada and South Carolina, the field will probably begin to narrow.
That is unless Bloomberg’s campaign strategy, based on defying the conventional path to the nomination, proves successful. Bloomberg entered the race late and declined to participate in Iowa and New Hampshire, or even in Nevada and South Carolina, the next two states to vote.
[The Democratic Party's delegate process]
In Bloomberg’s calculus, winning the nomination is about winning delegates, and neither Iowa nor New Hampshire provide many delegates to the convention.
Delegate count
after Iowa and New Hampshire
Buttigieg
23
Sanders
21
Warren
8
Klobuchar
7
Biden
6
Bloomberg
0
Delegate count
after Iowa and New Hampshire
23
Buttigieg
21
Sanders
8
Warren
7
Klobuchar
6
Biden
0
Bloomberg
Delegate count after Iowa and New Hampshire
Buttigieg
23
Sanders
21
Warren
8
Klobuchar
7
Biden
6
Bloomberg
0
Instead of focusing on early states, Bloomberg has been spending his time and significant financial resources on later states, betting that he can make an impressive showing on March 3, Super Tuesday, when 14 states, including delegate-rich California, will hold primaries.
3,979
4,000 delegates
3,000
2,000
Super Tuesday
1,357 delegates
1,000
0
FEB.
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
3,979
4,000 delegates
3,000
2,000
Super Tuesday
1,357 delegates
1,000
Iowa Caucuses
41 delegates
0
FEB.
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
3,979
4,000 delegates
3,000
2,000
Super Tuesday
1,357 delegates
1,000
Iowa Caucuses
41 delegates
0
FEB.
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
Notes on the data: The Republican Party did not caucus in Iowa in 1972. In 1976, New Hampshire was the fourth state to vote, coming after not just Iowa but also Mississippi and Oklahoma, which also held caucuses. Votes for “uncommitted” in the Iowa Democratic caucuses of 1972, 1976, 1992 and 1996 were not counted.
Dan Keating and Ted Mellnik contributed to this report.
Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated Andrew Yang’s position in New Hampshire. He finished eighth, not seventh. It also misstated the early number of delegates won by Pete Buttigieg, which is 23, not 26.
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