For much of June, California wildfires have been igniting easily and spreading quickly, aided by gusty winds. The state has seen more than 30 large fires in the last month, blazes that are at least 300 acres, including several already this week. Lightning sparked numerous fires on Monday, and windy conditions could continue to fan flames or reveal new fires.
Already this year, 106,453 acres have burned, most of those since late May. That stands out as “one of the higher amounts of burned area for the first half of the year in the state” in fire records going back to 1972, according to John Abatzoglou, a climatologist and wildfire expert at the University of California at Merced. Last year — a relatively mild fire season — only about 6,871 acres had burned by June 26. While it’s early to know if the notable volume of fires in recent weeks indicates an aggressive fire season ahead, a combination of unusually hot weather and abundant fuel is likely to increase fire risk through the summer.
California seemed to flip from spring storms in early May to a full-fledged, busy fire season in just a few weeks. There is a thick, continuous grass crop from two consecutive wet winters, and recent heat waves have dried that grass to a crisp. This week, fire experts warned of volatile conditions in the state’s grasslands, where flames are spreading rapidly even at lower wind speeds.
Advertisement
“We have typically seen bigger fire years outside of forested lands following wet years in the state, and this year has followed that path so far,” Abatzoglou said in an email.
Significant recent fires include the 15,500-acre Post Fire in Los Angeles County, the 19,000-acre Sites Fire in Northern California and this week’s Fresno June Lightning Complex, which has ballooned to 9,225 acres.
Conditions that could fuel the fires
The heat over the past four to six weeks has increased fire danger in much of California, and other areas may soon become available to burn.
“The conditions are there — the grass is dead just about everywhere, and really that’s how it starts,” said Issac Sanchez, deputy chief of communications for Cal Fire. “The grass is really what leads to these large, destructive fires eventually.”
Advertisement
Those grasses will carry flames into larger vegetation as the landscape dries out through the summer, potentially fueling more intense blazes later in the season.
Share this articleShare“I expect that the forested parts of the state will begin to become receptive to large fires in July that will allow the more traditional summer fire season to get underway,” Abatzoglou said. “Hot and dry conditions enable more burning in forests across the state.”
What to know about risks for a dangerous season
While the early-season fires have forced evacuations and destroyed structures, they aren’t necessarily a reliable predictor of the season to come.
“Statistically, there is little bearing between fire activity in the first six months of the year and fire activity the second half of the year,” Abatzoglou said.
But forecasts for an especially hot summer are tipping the balance toward an active and risky remainder of the fire season. Record-shattering heat was a big player in the state’s recent destructive fire seasons, especially in 2020, when over 4 million acres burned. The area burned by wildfires in California has been rising since the 1980s due to human-caused climate warming.
Advertisement
Brian Garcia, the warning coordination meteorologist for the Bay Area National Weather Service, is growing increasingly concerned about the season ahead. Forecast models show weather patterns that favor heat waves and dry lightning in July and August, and possibly frequent strong winds in the fall. He expects at least some large fires in the coming months.
“If we have an active summer, it’s going to tap resources really fast,” he said. “We’re going to be exhausted by the time it comes to fall.”
Of course, with plenty of uncertainty in long-range forecasts, there are wild cards that can swing the season either way — the potential of a lightning siege could stoke further flames, while the early arrival of soaking rains could dampen the risk.
“In California, 85% of the burned area happens after July 1st,” Abatzoglou said. “Simply put, there is a lot of time left for the story on the 2024 fire season to be written.”
ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7uK3SoaCnn6Sku7G70q1lnKedZMSmrdOhnKtnYmV%2FdXuPb2Zrb1%2BYrq21xaipp6GRYrKivsuyZLChnJmzqr7EZqqemaOku26%2ByKyirGc%3D